Using equations that arise in quantum mechanics, this paper describes a way to more accurately and efficiently represent non-Gaussian return distributions than the standard method of invoking skewness and kurtosis. Then, it provides a new single intuitive number, defined here as the “crash...

Multiple investment targets naturally arise in portfolio management when investments are subject to performance benchmarks such as a stock/bond reference portfolio and absolute drawdown limits. Additional layers of investment targets like inflation outperformance or liability coverage ratios...

Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. With our new methodology, the original multivariate, n-dimensional model is treated as a set...

Surveys of professional forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

This study highlights some deficiencies of the stock markets' risk legislation framework, and particularly the CESR (2010) guidelines. We show that the current legislative framework fails to offer incentives to financial management companies to invest in advanced models for more representative...

Abstract In 1995, the Basel Accords introduced an alternative method to compute the market risk charge through the use of a risk model developed internally by the financial institution. These internal models, based on the Value-at-Risk (VaR), follow certain rules that are defined under the Basel...

We take a look at some non-hedgeable risks, some of which may be independent of the trading strategy. After a brief review of second order greeks and of a formula for short-term (daily) P&L, we first give examples of residual delta risks due to system valuation/booking procedures. We then focus...