The behavioural framework has several attractions to offer for the identification of multivariable systems. Some of the variables may be left unexplained without the need for a distinction between inputs and outputs; criteria for model quality are independent of the chosen parametrization; and...

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure of interest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interest rate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and the short--term...

We consider HJM type models for the term structure of futures prices, where the volatility is allowed to be an arbitrary smooth functional of the present futures price curve. Using a Lie algebraic approach we investigate when the infinite dimensional futures price process can be realized by a...

This paper compares forecast performance of the ALI method and the MESMs and seeks ways of improving the ALI method. Inflation and GDP growth form the forecast objects for comparison, using data from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. The ALI method is found to produce better forecasts than...