This paper provides a general framework to assess the output and debt dynamics of an economy undertaking multi-year fiscal adjustment. The framework allows country-specific assumptions about the magnitude and persistence of fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects, and endogenous financing costs....

A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorptionreducing effect, as a...

This paper examines debt dynamics in the Caribbean and discusses policy options for reducing the high debt levels. Based on empirical studies of factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes, important policy lessons are drawn for the Caribbean. The analysis shows that major debt...

The program was successful in strengthening the economy and stabilizing market conditions, although part of the fiscal achievements were reversed after the program lapsed. The 2008 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with Hungary successfully stabilized financial market conditions and strengthened the...

Real regional gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 6 percent in 2009, reflecting a collapse in tourist arrivals and foreign direct investment (FDI)-financed construction activity. The global financial and economic crisis has also exposed areas of significant weaknesses, notwithstanding...

A very ambitious fiscal adjustment effort is under way. Fiscal institutional and sectoral reforms have been elaborated for a more durable adjustment. Greece’s determination toward a comprehensive modernization of the health sector, beginning with a far-reaching reform of state enterprises...

The global financial crisis has forced government intervention in major financial institutions in Belgium. This 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses that the boom in energy and food prices in early 2008 caused inflation to spike to well above the euro area average. Executive Directors have...

Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating...

This paper discusses key findings of the 2006 Regional Discussions on the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. Fiscal revenues have improved, but there has been only a modest improvement in the fiscal and debt positions. Tax revenues have strengthened with the uptick in economic activity,...

This Selected Issues paper quantifies the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain, focusing on the external sector. It describes the stylized facts of the Spanish economy and presents an econometric analysis. It examines Spain’s growth and productivity performance in relation to a...