Search Results - subject:"forecast efﬁciency"

Dutch GDP Data Revisions: Are They Predictable and Where Do They Come from?

Roodenburg, Olivier; Reijer, Ard H.J. den - In: Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik) 52 (2006) 4, pp. 337-356

This paper examines whether the preliminary releases of GDP incorporate efficiently all available information or the preliminary estimates contain information that can be useful in predicting forthcoming GDP revisions. Forecast rationality tests are applied to distinguish between these two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700741

Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation

Bakhshi, H.; Kapetanios, G.; Yates, T. - In: Empirical Economics 30 (2005) 3, pp. 539-553

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005184233

Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications

Nordhaus, William D. - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 1985

, called "forecast efficiency," that measures the extent to which information is incorporated into forecasts. This concept is … readily testable propositions about efficient forecasts. Second, the empirical part of the study examines forecast efficiency … circumstances will provide a more powerful test of forecast efficiency. A number of fixed-horizon forecasts are collected and these …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593153

Empirical Tests of the Rationality of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach

Nordhaus, William D.; Durlauf, Steven N. - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 1984

This paper examines the behavior of 4 major forecasters and the forecast consensus. We employ a new technique of "Fixed Horizon" models. This technique analyzes the sequence of adjustments of a series of forecasts of the same event. We first demonstrate that these forecast adjustment sequences...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593199