This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the performance of conventional approaches based on predicted probabilities generated by binary response regressions and random forests with two unconventional classification algorithms. The...

It is widely recognized that fragile states are key symptoms of under-development in many parts of the world. Such states are incapable of delivering basic services to their citizens and political violence is commonplace. As of yet, mainstream development economics has not dealt in any...

"For decades, parallel literatures in political science and economics have blamed natural resources for several pathologies. The extraction, transportation, and export of hydrocarbons and minerals are believed to vitiate the rule of law and jeopardize property rights. They therefore hinder...

"This book examines the effects of unstable democratic systems of government in modern society, providing an imperative analysis on political communications from such nations and highlighting real-world examples on the constraints seen in malfunctioning or emerging governments"--Provided by...

New thinking on the nature of fragility and risk shows a shift from a one-dimensional understanding of fragility towards a more holistic approach in which degrees of fragility exist on a spectrum. This approach recognises the need for collaborative, regional and global solutions to tackle the...