We construct inflation pressure indicators based on the long-run relationship that exists between monetary aggregates and prices, once it is adequately adjusted to account for the scale of transactions, as well as the opportunity cost of holding money. To that end, an extensive long-run...

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the demand for the monetary aggregate M1 in Mexico. Using cointegration techniques, we identify both a stable long-run relationship between M1 and its determinants, and a statistically sound single-equation error-correction model. Results are used...

Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Key Concepts: A Series of Primers -- Chapter 3: Why is the World Always Changing? -- Chapter 4: Making Trends and Breaks Work for us -- Chapter 5: Indicator Saturation Methods -- Chapter 6: Combining Theory and Data -- Chapter 7: Seeing into the Future --...