Search Results - subject:"imprecise probabilities"

Navigating Ambiguity: Imprecise Probabilities and the Updating of Disease Risk Beliefs

Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023

their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is … can map our data onto both a standard Bayesian model and a version that is designed to handle imprecise probabilities …; these models can match some features of our data but not all of them. Imprecise probabilities have important implications …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469382

Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs

Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526

A nonparametric predictive alternative to the Imprecise Dirichlet Model: the case of a known number of categories

Coolen, F. P. A.; Augustin, Thomas - 2006

Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) is a general methodology to learn from data in the absense of prior knowledge and without adding unjustified assumptions. This paper develops NPI for multinominal data where the total number of possible categories for the data is known. We present the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266240

Bayesian learning for a class of priors with prescribed marginals

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Augustin, Thomas - 2006

updating of imprecise probabilities: a weighted maximum likelihood method and a semi-classical method. The former bases …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266250

Scenarios, probability and possible futures

Ha-Duong, Minh - HAL - 2005

This paper provides an introduction to the mathematical theory of possibility, and examines how this tool can contribute to the analysis of far distant futures. The degree of mathematical possibility of a future is a number between O and 1. It quantifies the extend to which a future event is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008791955