Option-based measures can predict underlying stock returns, due to differences in price discovery and price pressure effects between options and underlying stocks. We investigate stock return predictability by various option price-based measures using REITs. REITs are more transparent and...

Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put equity options, is significantly and positively related to future stock market returns at daily, weekly, monthly, to semiannual horizons. This...