We implement a two-step analysis of fiscal and external causality patterns using a data set covering the 27 EU countries in the period 2002Q1-2023Q4. In the 1st step, we compute fiscal and external sustainability time-varying coefficients, modelling the cointegration relationship between...

We implement a two-step analysis of fiscal and external causality patterns using a data set covering the 27 EU countries in the period 2002Q1-2023Q4. In the 1st step, we compute fiscal and external sustainability time-varying coefficients, modelling the cointegration relationship between...

We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners—the US, Germany, and the UK—on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we...

We assess the impact of China's bilateral political relations with three main trading partners-the US, Germany, and the UK-on current account balances and exchange rates, over the 1960Q1-2022Q4 period. Relying on the lag-augmented VAR approach with time-varying Granger causality tests, we find...