A wide variety of processes are thought to show “long-range persistence”, specifically an autocorrelation function with power-law decay. A variety of methods have been proposed to quantify this power-law decay, and weather and climate systems, among others, have been claimed to show...

In an economy with multiple sources of risk, the short-term interest rate does not capture all the information that determines the conditional distribution of bond yields. This is also true for path-dependent term structure models. In either case, the current short rate level is not a sufficient...

We report an empirical study of the Ibovespa index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange in which we detect the existence of long-range correlations. To analyze our data, we introduce a rescaled variant of the usual detrended fluctuation analysis that allows us to obtain the Hurst exponent through a...

Recent findings of nonlinearities in financial assets can be the product of contamination produced by shifts in the distribution of the data. Using the BDS and Kaplan tests it is shown that, some of the nonlinearities found in foreign exchange rate returns, can be the product of shifts in...

This study investigates long-range power-law correlations in US, UK, Japanese, German, French and Spanish stock markets using daily data and applying a recently developed residual analysis termed detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We quantify correlations for the returns, absolute value of...

A major issue in financial economics is the behaviour of stock returns over long horizons. This study provides empirical evidence of the long-range behaviour of various speculative returns. Using different techniques such as R/S and modified R/S analysis, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA),...

Three-scaled windowed variance methods (standard, linear regression detrended, and bridge detrended) for estimating the Hurst coefficient (H) are evaluated. The Hurst coefficient, with 0 H 1, characterizes self-similar decay in the time-series autocorrelation function. The scaled windowed...

This paper shows that aggregation over heterogeneous firms, which are subject to temporary technology shocks, will lead to long memory and nonlinearities. We start from microfoundations, using standard RBC model of monopolistic competition. We then derive the fundamental intertemporal...

This paper shows that the behaviour of an otherwise conventional model of real business cycles (RBCs) in which heterogeneous individual firms are subject to temporary technology shocks will be characterised by long memory and nonlinearity. We start from microfoundations, using a standard RBC...