This paper aims to extract the common variation in a data set of 509 conjunctural series as an indication of the Belgian business cycle. The data set contains information on business and consumer surveys of Belgium and its neighbouring countries, macroeconomic variables and some worldwide...

This paper contributes to the literature on macroeconometric evaluation of active labour market policies (ALMP) by considering the regional effects on both the matching process and the job-seeker rate. We use an unique new data set on all Austrian job-seekers between 2001 to 2007 and apply GMM...

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a...

What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and...

This paper presents a macroeconomic model that is both a completely specified dynamic general equilibrium model and a probabilistic model for time series data. We view the model as a potential competitor to existing ISLM-based models that continue to be used for actual policy analysis. Our...

The Taylor Principle is often used to explain macroeconomic stability (see, e.g., Clarida et al. 2000). The reason is that this simple principle guarantees determinacy, i.e., local uniqueness of rational expectations equilibrium, in many New Keynesian models. However, analyses of determinacy are...

After a survey of alternative theoretical approaches to modeling financial markets, the domestic and international financial linkages of major multicountry models are examined and assessed. The properties of these models are compared by calculating the slopes of their UI and BP curves for the...

The paper revises the previous author's estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view....

Recently there has been a resurgence in the utility of New Keynesian models in the world. The financial crisis has been in many ways a wakeup call for a large part of economics and the importance of this previously underrated field has been increasing. The neoclassical synthesis of...

According to Basel II guidelines, all financial institutions should have proper quantitative tools to manage and control the credit risk. CreditRisk model developed by Credit Suisse Financial Products (CSFP) is one of the most widely used models for calculating Credit Value at Risk. CreditRisk...