We study for a benchmark small open emerging economy an optimal robust monetary policy à la Hansen and Sargent (2003) considering additive model uncertainty. The robust control approach supposes that economic agents are not able to assign probabilities to a set of all plausible models and...

Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

Despite growing interest in the use of complex models, such as machine learning (ML) models, for credit underwriting, ML models are difficult to interpret, and it is possible for them to learn relationships that yield de facto discrimination. How can we understand the behavior and potential...

This paper studies market selection in an Arrow-Debreu economy with complete markets where agents learn over misspecified models. Under model misspecification, standard Bayesian learning loses its formal justification and biased learning processes may provide a selection advantage. Given the...

We propose Monte Carlo calibration algorithms for three models: local volatility with stochastic interest rates, stochastic local volatility with deterministic interest rates, and finally stochastic local volatility with stochastic interest rates. For each model, we include detailed derivations...

The process of fitting mathematical finance (MF) models for option pricing — known as calibration — is expensive because evaluating the pricing function usually requires Monte-Carlo sampling. Inspired by the success of deep learning for simulation, we present a hypernetwork based approach to...

The incorporation of increasing returns and imperfect competition into applied general-equilibrium (AGE) models, beginning with Harris (1984), led to much larger welfare effects from changes such as trade liberalization. But the imperfect competition side of these IO developments has often...