Heterogeneous effects are prevalent in many economic settings. As the functional form between outcomes and regressors is generally unknown a priori, a semiparametric negative binomial count data model is proposed which is based on the local likelihood approach and generalized product kernels....

Heterogeneous effects are prevalent in many economic settings. As the functional form between outcomes and regressors is generally unknown a priori, a semiparametric negative binomial count data model is proposed which is based on the local likelihood approach and generalized product kernels....

We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data....