We propose a general class of multivariate fat-tailed distributions which includes the normal, t and Laplace distributions as special cases as well as their mixture. Full conditional posterior distributions for the Bayesian VAR-model are derived and used to construct a MCMC-sampler for the joint...

Buy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models are built for companies operating in a non- contractual setting to predict customers’ transaction frequency, amount and timing as well as customer lifetime. These models tend to perform well, although they often predict unrealistically long lifetimes for a...

The stress testing literature abounds with reduced-form macroeconomic models that are used to forecast the evolution of the macroeconomic environment in the context of a stress testing exercise. These models permit supervisors to estimate counterparty risk under both baseline and adverse...

This paper considers Value at Risk measures constructed under a discrete mixture of normal distribution on the innovations with time-varying volatility, or MN-GARCH, model. We adopt an approach based on the continuous empirical characteristic function to estimate the param eters of the model...

This study develops practical methods for Bayesian nonparametric inference in regression models. The emphasis is on extending a nonparametric treatment of the regression function to the full conditional distribution. It applies these methods to the relationship of earnings of men in the United...

This study develops practical methods for Bayesian nonparametric inference in regression models. The emphasis is on extending a nonparametric treatment of the regression function to the full conditional distribution. It applies these methods to the relationship of earnings of men in the United...

This paper attempts to explain the distribution of actual stock index returns using a mixture of the normal distributions model. This paper first defines the concept of structural breaks and derives a special form of structural breaks under the normality framework. It then applies the derived...