Les cycles économiques des pays d’Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient (MENA) sont-ils similaires ou non et quels sont les facteurs qui les con-ditionnent ? Notre méthode consiste à estimer plusieurs spécifications d’un modèle à facteurs dynamiques. Elle permet d'évaluer les poids...

In two-player games with negative (positive) spillovers it is well-known that symmetric agents both overact (underact) at the Nash equilibria. We show that for heterogeneous agents this rule of thumb has to be amended if the game features strategic substitutability.

Microsimulation constitutes a particularly powerful instrument for evaluating the distributive impact of macro-economic shocks. All existing models applied to developing countries remain static. I develop a dynamic model able to account for the temporal dimension of macro-economic shocks and...

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only...