Theoretically based on national income accounting identities, the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis downplays, if not totally ignores, the influence of monetary factors on international capital mobility. Recognizing the historical development of economics and the institutional arrangements of the...

Theoretically based on national income accounting identities, the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis downplays, if not totally ignores, the influence of monetary factors on international capital mobility. Recognizing the historical development of economics and the institutional arrangements of the...

Emerging markets (sometimes endowed with fertile pampas) have limited access to world capital markets and suffer from original sin: they cannot borrow in their own currency. Does this mean that monetary and exchange rate policy has non-standard effects in such countries? We develop a simple...

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the...

We study the relation among exchange rates, balance sheets, and macroeconomic outcomes in a small open economy. Because liabilities are dollarized,' a real devaluation has detrimental effects on entreprenurial net worth, which in turn constrains investment due to financial frictions. But there...

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...

This paper studies the links between current accounts and relative price levels, finding that current account changes are associated with sizable future relative price levels effects. This is done in panel regressions of the Penn effect, adding a lagged current account / GDP and other...

Gourinchas and Rey (2007) have shown that international financial adjustment (IFA) in the path of expected future returns on a country's international investment portfolio can complement or even substitute for the traditional adjustment channel via a narrowing of country's current account...