Damped trend exponential smoothing has previously been established as an important forecasting method. Here, it is shown to have close links to simple exponential smoothing with a smoothed error tracking signal. A special case of damped trend exponential smoothing emerges from our analysis, one...

Forecasts of the cyclically-adjusted primary government balance are, potentially, informative as to the stance of future fiscal policies. This is sustained by the fiscal surveillance procedure for Eurozone members since the reformed Stability and Growth Pact of 2005. However, the quality of...