The prediction of future mortality improvements is of substantial importance for areas such as population projection, government welfare policies, pension planning and annuity pricing. The Lee-Carter model is one of the widely applied mortality models proposed to capture and predict the trend in...

This paper proposes a two-step LASSO based vector autoregressive (2-LVAR) model to forecast mortality rates. Within the VAR framework, recent studies have developed a spatial-temporal autoregressive (STAR) model, in which age-specific mortality rates are related to their own historical values...