In the increasingly connected world, many systems are more or less coupled with each other in various ways. A typical example is the cross-market portfolio management, where the products of heterogeneous markets are selected and configured for investment. In such cross-market problems, one...

This paper describes the modelling of spread risk, in case of missing or illiquid market data, by using a subset of good quality liquid bond/credit default swap (CDS) spread time series. The proposed method links copula simulation to the actual historical spread dynamics. This is important when...

A novel, general two-sample hypothesis testing procedure is established for testing the equality of tail copulas associated with bivariate data. More precisely, using an ingenious transformation of a natural two-sample tail copula process, a test process is constructed, which is shown to...

Reliable wind energy forecasting is crucial for the stable operation of power grids. This paper proposes a regional wind power probabilistic forecasting model comprising an improved kernel density estimation (IKDE), regular vine copulas, and ensemble learning. The IKDE is firstly used to...

We propose a tail dependence based network approach to study systemic risk in a network of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). We utilize a flexible factor copula-based method which allows us to measure the level of extreme risk in a portfolio when dependence is driven by one...

In this paper, we address risk aggregation and capital allocation problems in the presence of dependence between risks. The dependence structure is defined by a mixed Bernstein copula which represents a generalization of the well-known Archimedean copulas. Using this new copula, the probability...