We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

We characterise the distribution of expected GDP growth during the Great Influenza Pandemic (known also as Spanish Flu) using a non-linear method in a country panel setting. We show that there are non-negligible risks of large GDP losses with the 5% left tail of the distribution suggesting a...

In this paper, a nonlinear model is proposed for improving the relationship between the size of a cluster and the variance within the cluster. This model describes the most appropriate functional relation between the within-cluster variance and the cluster size. Through this model, we can obtain...

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

We characterise the distribution of expected GDP growth during the Great Influenza Pandemic (known also as Spanish Flu) using a non-linear method in a country panel setting. We show that there are non-negligible risks of large GDP losses with the 5% left tail of the distribution suggesting a...

In this paper, a nonlinear model is proposed for improving the relationship between the size of a cluster and the variance within the cluster. This model describes the most appropriate functional relation between the within-cluster variance and the cluster size. Through this model, we can obtain...

Linear Econometric Models with Machine Learning -- Nonlinear Econometric Models with Machine Learning -- The Use of Machine Learning in Treatment Effect Estimation.-Forecasting with Machine Learning Methods.-Causal Estimation of Treatment Effects From Observational Health Care Data Using Machine...