This paper examines the time series behavior of monthly bilateral real exchange rates (RER) on a comprehensive sample of 78 industrialized and developing countries, using the U.S. Dollar, the UK Pound and the German Deutsche Mark as numeraires. We suggest a three-step testing procedure based on...

Tools and approaches are provided for nonlinear time series modelling in econometrics. A wide range of topics is covered, including probabilistic properties, statistical inference and computational methods. The focus is on the applications but the ideas of the mathematical arguments are also...

Trade theory and economic geography suggest that the removal of trade barriers is likely to bring about more economic specialisation and potentially more diverse development paths between countries and regions. Thus, the deepening and extending European integration should be accompanied by an...

Trade theory and economic geography suggest that the removal of trade barriers is likely to bring about more economic specialisation and potentially more diverse development paths between countries and regions. Thus, the deepening and extending European integration should be accompanied by an...

This paper examines nonlinearities in the dynamics of volatility expectations using benchmarks of implied volatility for the US and Japanese markets. The evidence from Markov regime-switching models suggests that volatility expectations are likely to be governed by regimes featuring a long...

This article is concerned with forecasting from nonlinear conditional mean models. First, a number of often applied nonlinear conditional mean models are introduced and their main properties discussed. The next section is devoted to techniques of building nonlinear models. Ways of computing...

We develop a non-dynamic panel smooth transition regression model with fixed individual effects. The model is useful for describing heterogenous panels, with regression coefficients that vary across individuals and over time. Heterogeneity is allowed for by assuming that these coefficients are...

In this paper we propose a method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models using smooth transition autoregression as a tool. As the smooth transition model is just an approximation to the threshold autoregressive one, no asymptotic properties are claimed for the...

Desde comienzos de los ’80, la elaboración de modelos no lineales se está volviendo una metodología cada vez más popular en economía. Sin embargo, no es tan novedosa como muchos investigadores parecen creer. Antes de que el enfoque lineal dominara a la teoría económica alrededor de los...