Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...

This paper considers a nonparametric regression model for cross-sectional data in the presence of common shocks. Common shocks are allowed to be very general in nature; they do not need to be finite dimensional with a known (small) number of factors. I investigate the properties of the...

Let H 0 (X) be a function that can be nonparametrically estimated. Suppose E [ Y | X ]= F 0 [ X ß 0 H 0 (X) ] . Many models fit this framework, including latent in- dex models with an endogenous regressor and nonlinear models with sample se- lection. We show that the vector ß 0 and unknown...

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there is a unique non-randomized unbiased estimator based on...

We propose a GMM estimator with optimal instruments for a probit model that includes a continuous endogenous regressor. This GMM estimator incorporates the probit error and the heteroscedasticity of the error term in the first-stage equation in order to construct the optimal instruments. The...

We study an investor who is unsure of the dynamics of the economy. Not only are parameters unknown, but the investor does not even know what order model to estimate. She estimates her consumption process nonparametrically – allowing potentially infinite-order dynamics – and prices assets...