poverty status. A further innovation of this research compared to the existing literature is the use of out-of sample … confidence intervals are approximated out-of sample using the bootstrap algorithm and the percentile method. The main conclusion … perform better out-of sample. Besides it complexity, the Quantile regression is less robust. The Probit may be the best …

forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out-of-sample …

forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out-of-sample …