We estimate an output gap indicator for Turkey without resorting to any kind of a filtering procedure. Our approach stands on a two-step procedure : First, we pick such variables that are directly informative about the phase of the business cycle, where the decision of choice depends on their...

This paper examines economic policy interactions in the Economic and Monetary Union when the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is surrounded by uncertainty. On the basis of a simple stylised model it shows that different views about the output gap on the side of the policy players -...