We analyze optimal monetary policy when a central bank has to learn about an unknown coefficient that determines the effect of surprise inflation on aggregate demand. We derive the optimal policy under active learning and compare it to two limiting cases---certainty equivalence policy and...

We conduct a detailed simulation study of the forecasting performance of diffusion index-based methods in short samples with structural change. We consider several data generation processes, to mimic different types of structural change, and compare the relative forecasting performance of factor...

We calculate the ex-post portfolio performance for an investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, REITS and cash. Simulations are performed for two alternative asset allocation frameworks – classical and Bayesian - and for scenarios involving two different samples and six different...

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M <Subscript>w</Subscript> magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are...</subscript>

We propose a model of portfolio selection under ambiguity, based on a two-stage valuation procedure which disentangles ambiguity and ambiguity aversion. The model does not imply 'extreme pessimism' from the part of the investor, as multiple priors models do. Furthermore, its analytical...