Monthly interest rate forecasts from nearly 50 major financial institutions are used to examine the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the term structure for the Canadian T-bill market and Libor markets in the US, UK, and Switzerland. Using CVARs, the term premium is found to move...

This paper tests the ex ante implications of Frydman and Goldberg's Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) gap model in such a way as to overcome the endogeneity bias and data restrictions of previous work. The IKE gap model relates the expected excess return (measured here through survey data for...

In this paper we model the multicointegration relation, allowing for one structural break. Since multicointegration is a particular case of polynomial or I(2) cointegration, our proposal can also be applied in these cases. The paper proposes the use of a residualbased Dickey-Fuller class of...

It is almost common knowledge that foreign trade in Europe is characterized by an acceptance of prices set by the world market. Coupled with a constant profit share in domestic sectors this makes European exports vulnerable to vagaries of international demand and prices as well as to crowding...

It is almost common knowledge that foreign trade in Europe is characterized by an acceptance of prices set by the world market. Coupled with a constant profit share in domestic sectors this makes European exports vulnerable to vagaries of international demand and prices as well as to crowding...