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  • Search: subject:"predictive likelihood"
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Year of publication
Subject
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predictive likelihood 28 Prognoseverfahren 23 Forecasting model 19 Bayesian inference 18 Predictive likelihood 17 Bayes-Statistik 16 Predictive Likelihood 14 Theorie 13 Statistische Verteilung 12 Bayesian model averaging 11 Statistical distribution 10 Theory 10 ARCH-Modell 9 Value at Risk 9 VAR-Modell 8 Density Forecasting 7 Risk Management 7 VAR model 7 ARCH model 6 Dynamic equilibrium 6 Dynamisches Gleichgewicht 6 Estimation theory 6 Schätztheorie 6 Simulation-based inference 6 Zeitreihenanalyse 6 Estimation 5 Inflation 5 Metropolis-Hastings algorithm 5 Schätzung 5 Time series analysis 5 Volatility 5 Algorithmus 4 DCC GARCH 4 DSGE model 4 DSGE-Modell 4 Euro area 4 Eurozone 4 GDP forecasts 4 Inflation rate 4 Kalman filter 4
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Online availability
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Free 47 Undetermined 14
Type of publication
All
Book / Working Paper 51 Article 15
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Working Paper 26 Graue Literatur 11 Non-commercial literature 11 Arbeitspapier 10 Article in journal 8 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 8
Language
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English 46 Undetermined 20
Author
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Warne, Anders 10 Karlsson, Sune 9 Hoogerheide, Lennart 7 Grassi, Stefano 6 McAdam, Peter 6 Dijk, Herman K. van 5 Eklund, Jana 5 Koop, Gary 5 Bjørnstad, Jan F. 4 Christoffel, Kai 4 Coenen, Günter 4 Mittnik, Stefan 4 Opschoor, Anne 4 Paolella, Marc S. 4 Santucci de Magistris, Paolo 4 Andersson, Michael K 3 Filippeli, Thomai 3 Gatarek, Lukasz 3 Harrison, Richard 3 Hooning, Koen 3 Kräussl, Roman 3 Theodoridis, Konstantinos 3 Amisano, Gianni 2 Feldkircher, Martin 2 Geweke, John 2 Kang, Kyu Ho 2 Magistris, Paolo Santucci de 2 Noureldin, Diaa 2 Shephard, Neil 2 Sheppard, Kevin 2 Ytterstad, Elinor 2 van Dijk, Herman K. 2 Abdymomunov, Azamat 1 Andersson, Michael K. 1 Chao, Wang 1 Choi, Ahjin 1 Jin, Xin 1 Juutilainen, Ilmari 1 Kim, Ki Jeong 1 Kuboki, Hisataka 1
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Institution
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Center for Financial Studies 4 School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus 2 Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Government of Norway 2 Sveriges Riksbank 2 Tinbergen Instituut 2 Business School, University of Sydney 1 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1 Department of Economics, Oxford University 1 Economics Department, University of Strathclyde 1 Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford 1 European Central Bank 1 Fachbereich Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Paris-Lodron Universität Salzburg 1 Handelshögskolan, Örebro Universitet 1 Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) 1 School of Economics, University of Kent 1 Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) 1 University of Toronto, Department of Economics 1
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Published in...
All
CFS Working Paper Series 5 CFS working paper series 3 ECB Working Paper 3 CFS Working Paper 2 CREATES Research Papers 2 Discussion Papers 2 Discussion Papers / Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Government of Norway 2 Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 2 International journal of forecasting 2 Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series 2 Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2 Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 2 Working Paper Series / Sveriges Riksbank 2 Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2 Working paper series / European Central Bank 2 Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 1 CEPR Discussion Papers 1 Cardiff Economics Working Papers 1 Cardiff economics working papers 1 Discussion papers / University of Kent, School of Economics 1 Econometric Reviews 1 Economics Papers / Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford 1 Economics Series Working Papers / Department of Economics, Oxford University 1 Frontiers of economics in China : selected publications from Chinese universities 1 International Journal of Business and Economics 1 International Journal of Forecasting 1 Journal of Applied Statistics 1 Journal of Econometrics 1 Journal of Empirical Finance 1 Journal of applied econometrics 1 Journal of banking & finance 1 Journal of empirical finance 1 Journal of forecasting 1 Journal of international money and finance 1 SIRE Discussion Papers 1 School of Economics Discussion Papers 1 Staff working papers / Bank of England 1 Studies in Economics 1 Sveriges Riksbank working paper series 1 Working Paper 1
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Source
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RePEc 31 ECONIS (ZBW) 19 EconStor 16
Showing 11 - 20 of 66
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Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 2, pp. 580-600
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300702
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Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGEVAR, and VAR models
Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter; Christoffel, Kai - 2014
The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a … forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420345
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Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGEVAR, and VAR models
Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter; Christoffel, Kai - Center for Financial Studies - 2014
The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a … forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010986379
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Modeling and Forecasting the Distribution of Energy Forward Returns - Evidence from the Nordic Power Exchange
Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper V. - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2014
We explore intraday transaction records from NASDAQ OMX Commodities Europe from January 2006 to October 2013. We analyze empirical results for a selection of existing realized measures of volatility and incorporate them in a Realized GARCH framework for the joint modeling of returns and realized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945126
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Forecasting risk via realized GARCH, incorporating the realized range
Chao, Wang; Richard, Gerlach - Business School, University of Sydney - 2014
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the realized range, and the intra-day range, as potentially more efficient series of information than re- alized variance or daily returns, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. A Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951635
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Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGEVAR, and VAR models
Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter; Christoffel, Kai - 2014
The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a … forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412361
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It's all about volatility of volatility : evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model
Grassi, Stefano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo - 2014
The persistent nature of equity volatility is investigated by means of a multi-factor stochastic volatility model with time varying parameters. The parameters are estimated by means of a sequential matching procedure which adopts as auxiliary model a time-varying generalization of the HAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402299
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Censored Posterior and Predictive Likelihood in Bayesian Left-Tail Prediction for Accurate Value at Risk Estimation
Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Hooning, Koen; … - 2013
likelihood; and the censored predictive likelihood, which is used for Bayesian Model Averaging. We perform extensive experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326148
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It's all about volatility of volatility: evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model
Grassi, Stefano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo - 2013
The persistent nature of equity volatility is investigated by means of a multi-factor stochastic volatility model with time varying parameters. The parameters are estimated by means of a sequential matching procedure which adopts as auxiliary model a time-varying generalization of the HAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010456963
Saved in:
Cover Image
It’s all about volatility (of volatility): evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model
Grassi, Stefano; Magistris, Paolo Santucci de - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2013
The persistent nature of equity volatility is investigated by means of a multi-factor stochastic volatility model with time varying parameters. The parameters are estimated by means of a sequential indirect inference procedure which adopts as auxiliary model a time-varying generalization of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851276
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