Based on a number of detailed, in‐depth, cases selected from 30 face‐to‐face company interviews and placed in the context of the literature, this paper will argue that targeted financial support of start‐ups, the notion of “picking winners”, is not a viable alternative to blanket...

Challenges the belief shown by many McKinsey managers that accurate predictions of the future follow rigorous analysis using the many tools available. Describes four levels of uncertainty that require differing approaches: clear‐enough future; alternate futures; range of futures; and true...

Refers to previous research on the relationship between returns for different asset classes and on cointegration; and applies Johansen’s (1988) methodology to develop a prediction model. Uses 1978‐1995 data on five US asset classes (treasury bills, long‐term bonds, large capitalization...

Discusses arbitrage pricing theory as a multifactor model for explaining rates of return on securities; and the use of principal components analysis to reduce the number of variables studies. Applies these ideas to returns on treasury bills and government bonds for 1,000 business days ending in...

Proposes an optimal identification algorithm of time‐varying dynamic processes. Says it is based on applying a linear combination of the recursive least‐squares method equations. Posits that this scheme could be applied to identify and predict the ARMAX model of the on‐line desalting...

This article discusses the limitations of existing going‐concern discriminant models and explores the use of weighted probit analysis to construct a classification model for the auditor to use in making going/non‐going concern decisions. The model is constructed using probit analysis with...