The paper explores probability theory foundations behind evaluation of probabilistic forecasts. The emphasis is on a situation when the forecast examiner possesses only partially the information which was available and was used to produce a forecast. We argue that in such a situation forecasts...

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models involving conditional volatility, conditional higher...

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models involving conditional volatility, conditional higher...

The paper provides an overview of probabilistic forecasting and discusses a theoretical framework for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts which is based on proper scoring rules and moments. An artificial example of predicting second-order autoregression and an example of predicting the RTSI...

This paper proposes new specification tests for conditional models with discrete responses. In particular, we can test the static and dynamic ordered choice model specifications, which is key to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, to obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and to...

Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticized for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES...

There is evidence to suggest that a single factor of duration running on single time scale is not adequate to capture the dynamics of the duration process of financial transaction data. This assertion is motivated by the observation that some existing one-factor stochastic duration models have...