Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...

Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...

Much of the growing literature on tactical and strategic asset allocation uses vector autoregressive models (VAR) for returns and predictors. Since the portfolio advice they generate may be misleading if those models are not an accurate description of reality, we evaluate the implied joint...

We propose two nonparametric transition density-based speciþcation tests for continuous-time diffusion models. In contrast to marginal density as used in the literature, transition density can capture the full dynamics of a diffusion process, and in particular, can distinguish processes with...

We propose two nonparametric transition density-based speciþcation tests for continuous-time diffusion models. In contrast to marginal density as used in the literature, transition density can capture the full dynamics of a diffusion process, and in particular, can distinguish processes with...

In this paper, we develop a general approach for constructing simple tests for the correct density forecasts, or equivalently, for i.i.d. uniformity of appropriately transformed random variables. It is based on nesting a series of i.i.d. uniform random variables into a class of copula-based...

This paper designs a visual goodness-of-fit test based on the probability integral transformation of the residuals of an estimated model. We illustrate the method with histograms and correlograms of transformed series for different distributions of disturbances in simulated models. An...

This paper designs a visual goodness-of-fit test based on the probability integral transformation of the residuals of an estimated model. We illustrate the method with histograms and correlograms of transformed series for different distributions of disturbances in simulated models. An...