In this paper, we address the mortality risk of individuals and adopt parsimonious time- homogeneous a±ne processes for their mortality intensities. We calibrate the models to different generations in the UK population and investigate their empirical appropriateness. We find that, in spite of...

Water users along the Murray River, Australia, have traditionally used climatology forecasts of river flows for intra-annual planning of water use and trading. In this paper, we develop and assess the performance of statistical models for forecasting three-month inflow totals for the Murray...

March brings March Madness, the annual conclusion to the U.S. men's college basketball season with two single elimination basketball tournaments showcasing the best college teams in the country. Almost as mad is the plethora of office pools across the country where the object is to pick a priori...

Decision models involving continuous probability distributions almost always require some form of approximation. The usual approach to evaluating these kinds of models is to construct a discrete approximation for each continuous distribution and compute value lotteries and certain equivalents...

This paper compares a number of approximations used to estimate means and variances of continuous random variables and/or to serve as substitutes for the probability distributions of such variables, with particular emphasis on three-point approximations. Numerical results from estimating means...