The optimal control literature traditionally analyzes linear-quadratic Gaussian (LQG) formulations of macroeconomic policy design where policy planers seek to minimize the distance between a direct target vector y and a vector of aspiration levels y*, using a suitably dimensioned matrix M as a...

Accounting standards require that financial institutions must measure default risk with respect to the full maturity of a financial instrument. This requires forecasting of future default probabilities. The forecast of future default probabilities concerns two aspects: forecasting macroeconomic...

Accounting standards require from financial institutions to consider and forecast multiple macroe- conomic scenarios when calculating loan loss provisions. Loan loss provisions protect a financial institutions against losses. But how to determine objectively the number of scenarios and to...

Credit ratings are expert systems which assess the likelihood of a borrower to default. The Basel Accord allows banks to base regulatory capital requirements on the default probability of a rating. Banks must prove that the employed default probabilities are valid estimates. Since in credit risk...