Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple...

This paper contributes to the literature on the estimation of the Risk Neutral Density (RND) function by modeling the prices of options for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil that were traded in the period between January 2016 and January 2017. For these series we extract the implicit RND...

In monetary policymaking, central bankers have long pointed out the importance of measuring the expectations of financial market participants, households, and firms — especially with regard to inflation and the central bank's so-called “reaction function” to changes in the economic...

Vague, or imprecise, news may affect decisions by changing either the fundamentals, or the associated uncertainty, or both. We show response to vague news is shaped by ambiguity attitudes, yet with qualitative differences for different levels of risk, on top of ambiguity, conveyed. The decision...

This paper introduces a new family of lifetime distributions, using the ascendant order statistics.The proposed distribution is called the exponential-generalized truncated Poisson (EGTP) distribution. Our approach follows the same procedure as Adamidis and Loukas (1998) and generalizes the...

We propose a kernel function for ordered categorical data that overcomes certain limitations present in ordered kernel functions that have appeared in the literature on the estimation of probability mass functions for multinomial ordered data. Some of these limitations arise from assumptions...

Starting from a neglected work by Rappeport (1968), we re-propose an exact algorithm to compute the distribution of the maximum of a multinomial random vector under the hypothesis of equiprobability. We then show how to compute the exact probabilities of the sum of the J largest order statistics...