This paper extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. By means of synthetic and real data experiments it is established that the proposed estimator can achieve, in many cases, better...

The demand for non-mandatory insurance against low-probability, high-impact risks is relatively low compared to what is expected. From a dataset of 65 experimentally-elicited and survey-based estimates, we conduct a meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies. It appears that the average...

This paper introduces the probabilistic formulation of continuous-time economic models: forward stochastic differential equations (SDE) govern the dynamics of backward-looking variables, and backward SDEs capture that of forward-looking variables. Deep learning streamlines the search for the...

Regime-switching Markovian models can describe natural disasters such as floods more accurately then the corresponding models without a switch. However, when using switching models, we must first provide them with a transition matrix that can be estimated from the data. In this paper we will...

We provide a simple identity that decomposes a product moment of multivariate normal random variables as a sum of various products of univariate moments of one of the random variables and multivariate moments of the other random variables. The new identity allows for much faster computation of...

Little is known about how gamblers estimate probabilities from multiple information sources. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n=465 participants (self-reported gamblers and non-gamblers). Our data failed to support our main...

In the landmark article [MSTW17], Müller et. al. introduced the notion of fractional stochastic dominance (SD) to interpolate between first and second SD relations. In this article, we introduce a novel family of multi-fractional stochastic orders that generalizes fractional SD in a natural...

Betrayal aversion has been shown to be an important determinant of trust (Bohnet and Zeckhauser, 2004). We study whether the way betrayal aversion is identified (as a difference in Minimum Acceptable Probabilities, MAPs) is affected by beliefs about one’s prospects.In a within-subject design,...