We obtain risk-neutral probabilities of the Brexit referendum using data from both the optionsand prediction markets. We then provide a risk-corrected measure of these probabilities usingboth non-parametric and parametric methods. While former correction marginally changes therisk-neutral...

I develop a theory of group interaction in which individuals who act sequentially are concerned with conforming to what they believe is the majority attitude. Pluralistic ignorance may arise, an outcome with incomplete learning in which individuals conform to a mistaken sense of the majority...

This paper studies random vectors X featuring symmetric distributions in that i) the order of the random variables in X does not affect its distribution, or ii) the distribution of X is symmetric at zero. We derive a number of characterization results for such random vectors, thereby connecting...

This paper introduces a highly analytically tractable parametric model for modelling interest-rate tick movements and arbitrage-free pricing interest-rate options. We apply it to loan prime rates (LPR), the foremost benchmark interest rates that matter to almost all businesses and households in...

The optimal control literature traditionally analyzes linear-quadratic Gaussian (LQG) formulations of macroeconomic policy design where policy planers seek to minimize the distance between a direct target vector y and a vector of aspiration levels y*, using a suitably dimensioned matrix M as a...

Will a high ESG rating firm suffers more stock market drawdown than a low ESG rating firm if an ESG scandal happens? We address this prediction theoretically and empirically. Using ESG scores from four mainstream rating agencies and ESG scandal data, we find higher ESG score is associated with...

This paper examined a set of over two thousand crypto-coins observed between 2015 and 2020 to estimate their credit risk by computing their probability of death. We employed different definitions of dead coins, ranging from academic literature to professional practice, alternative forecasting...

Necessarily, new technical change is facilitated by the development of new technical proficiencies. Whenever the claim to `new technical change' is robust, the accompanying `new technical proficiencies' facilitate an `outcome', in respect of which `old technical proficiencies' are intractable....