A very, very, very severe problem has been occurring repeatedly over the last 100 years in the social sciences and philosophy, when it comes to the question of understanding the meaning of Keynes ‘s logical theory of probability and his concept of rational degrees of belief. It is the failure...

Experimental research by Griffin and Tversky (1992) has identified a strength-weight bias in probability updating: when assessing sets of binary signals, individuals excessively focus on the strength or extremeness of the given evidence while insufficiently accounting for the weight or...

The mis-belief that Keynes ‘s concept of the evidential weight of the evidence ,V=V(a/h),in chapter 6 of the A Treatise on Probability, represented a measure of the absolute amount of relevant evidence ,can be traced back to some 40 book and journal contributions made by I J Good between 1950...

Keynes, as he had done in all of his major works either directly or indirectly, from the 1913 Indian Currency and Finance through the General Theory in 1936, always used his A Treatise on Probability method and methodology of inexact measurement and approximation when performing a technical...

This paper considers the randomly weighted sums generated by some dependent sub-exponential primary random variables and some arbitrarily dependent random weights. To study the randomly weighted sums with infinitely many terms, we establish a Kesten-type upper bound for their tail probabilities...