Countless test statistics can be written as quadratic forms in certain random vectors, or ratios thereof. Consequently, their distribution has received considerable attention in the literature. Except for a few special cases, no closed-form expression for the cdf exists, and one resorts to...

This paper introduces a model of decision making under ambiguity by extending the Bayesian approach to uncertain probabilities. In this model, preferences for ambiguity pertain directly to probabilities such that attitude toward ambiguity is defined as attitude toward mean-preserving spreads in...

The importance of diagnostic tests cannot be understated; they save lives and contribute to the overall health of the economy. However, the current state of subject-matter eligibility does not incentivize the research and development of these life-saving tools. In May 2019, the Senate Judiciary...

We propose a new adaptive procedure for the measurement of decision models. Our procedure bounds the function of the decision model, sequentially halves the maximal distance between its bounds, and incrementally restricts the feasible space of associated parameters. It relies on approximating...

The English polymath Frank Ramsey was one of the first scholars to paint a subjective picture of probability, but how and when did he make this discovery? Among other things, Cheryl Misak's beautiful biography of Ramsey explores this remarkable terrain, which we review in part one of this paper....

This paper will explore concepts of the Markov Chain and demonstrate its applications in probability prediction area and financial trend analysis. The historical background and the properties of the Markov's chain are analyzed

Many statistical and econometric learning methods rely on Bayesian ideas, often applied or reinterpreted in a frequentist setting. Two leading examples are shrinkage estimators and model averaging estimators, such as weighted-average least squares (WALS). In many instances, the accuracy of these...

We consider a collection of derivatives that depend on the price of an underlying asset at expiration or maturity. The absence of arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral probability distribution on the price; in particular, any risk neutral distribution can be interpreted as a...

This paper investigates how migration and location choice decisions depend on a large set of location characteristics, with particular focus on measuring the importance and nature of the non-monetary cost of moving. We employ a stated-preference approach to elicit respondents' choice...

We focus on returns defined as log-price differentials and generated by a diffusion process which incorporates stochastic volatility and jumps in prices. The jumps are properly compensated for this model. The stochastic volatility follows the well-known CIR process. We present general...