Skewness preference, the tendency to overweight the probability of extreme tail events, can affect managerial decision making. We find that Chinese listed firms managed by CEOs who experienced a largely unpredictable rare event, namely the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in...

Very severe contradictions, inconsistencies, and confusions exist in the exchanges between two Heterodox economists, who are considered to be the top Heterodox experts on Keynes's A Treatise on Probability, logical theory of probability, and of the connections between the A Treatise on...

Accounting standards require that financial institutions must measure default risk with respect to the full maturity of a financial instrument. This requires forecasting of future default probabilities. The forecast of future default probabilities concerns two aspects: forecasting macroeconomic...

Decision and policy makers often ask experts to forecast a future state. Experts, however, can be biased. In the economics and psychology literature, one extensively studied behavioral bias is called herding. Under strong levels of herding, it is generally known that disclosure of public...

The very recent publication of C. Misak's autobiography of F P Ramsey in 2020, as well as a number of book reviews made by different reviewers of that book, have resulted in the resurrection of highly misleading claims made by F. Ramsey, when he was 18 years old, that can only be characterized...

A major error ,committed by all philosophers and economists in the 20th and 21st century who have written on the 1931 comment of Keynes on Ramsey about “…I yield to Ramsey, I think he is right”, is their failure to recognize that Keynes’s logical theory of probability is an imprecise...