Residential mobility rates in the U.S. have fallen considerably over the past three decades. The cause of the long-term decline remains largely unexplained. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of alternative drivers of residential mobility, including job opportunities,...

This paper presents a new model for term risk, yield curve, and credit risk in spreads in a unified approach. The originality lies in the structuring of the Poisson stochastic of risk in a form suitable for finding the differential equation for the yield curve and its spreads as the Poisson...

The psychological basis for rank-dependent probability weighting, and for an inverse-S probability weighting function (PWF) in particular, has often been questioned. I examine the existence and shape of the PWF in a model allowing for optimism/pessimism over probability distributions and for...

J M Keynes's method was explicitly introduced and used in the A Treatise on Probability in Parts II, III and V. Keynes's method is an inductive logic built on the mathematical logic and algebra of George Boole. Boole introduced non linearity and non additivity into his approach using interval...

Paul Davidson's technical understanding of the mathematical details of the Limiting Frequency theory of probability and Kolmogorov's measure theoretic extension from additivity to countable additivity, which allows for an extension of the concept of the Law of Large Numbers to the concept or...

Probabilities of one-time events are unobservable and unmeasurable. According to empiricist and positivist principles, they must be meaningless. However, our cognitive limitations do not prevent entities and effects from existing. We show that the argument for existence of subjective...

The paper introduces four unbiased probability-simulators which produce continuous (simulated) log-likelihood functions with almost everywhere continuous derivatives. Identification conditions are derived which show that in the presence of intercepts in the latent utilities, then the shocks'...

Keynes's initial, introductory presentation of his inexact measurement, approximation approach to interval valued probability occurred on pages 38-40 of chapter III of the A Treatise on Probability. Keynes used a simple diagram on page 38 to illustrate the non linear and non additive nature of...