Search Results - subject:"real‐time data"

Incorporating conjunctural analysis in structural models

Giannone, Domenico; Monti, Francesca; Reichlin, Lucrezia - In: The science and practice of monetary policy today : the …, (pp. 41-57). 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003920587

Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

Stark, Tom; Croushore, Dean - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2001

This paper discusses how forecasts may be affected by the use of real-time data rather than latest-available data. The … variety of exercises designed to answer this question. In particular, we find that real-time data matters for some forecasting …-available data rather than real-time data. Thus, developing a model using latest-available data is questionable; model development …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537777

UK Inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: The Role of Output Gap Mismeasurement

Nelson, Edward; Nikolov, Kalin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

Understanding the degree of measurement error in the estimates of the output gap available to policymakers in ‘real time’ is important both for the formulation of monetary policy and for the study of inflation behaviour. For the United Kingdom, no official output gap series was published for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067584

The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gaps in Real Time

Orphanides, Athanasios; Norden, Simon van - Society for Computational Economics - SCE - 2001

A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for empirical formulations of countercyclical monetary policy in many models. However, evidence for the usefulness of output gap measures for forecasting inflation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005170601

Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment

Milas, Costas; Naraidoo, Ruthira - Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and … - 2009

and that model specifications with real-time data provide the best description of in-sample ECB interest rate setting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008633250

The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

Orphanides, Athanasios; Norden, Simon van - EconWPA - 1999

Compared to its central role in policy discussions in the United States and most other developed countries, the reliability of the measurement of the output gap has attracted relatively little academic study. Furthermore, both the academic literature and the debate among practitioners have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126356

Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data.

Bernoth, Kerstin; Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Lewis, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

makers were trying to do requires real time data. This paper compares fiscal policy reaction functions for 14 European … the ex-post data; the real time data suggests that policymakers have tried to run counter-cyclical discretionary policy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666438

Short-term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth

Angelini, Elena; Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo; Giannone, Domenico - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2005. The method consists in bridging...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124140

Early Warning or Just Wise After the Event? The Problem of Using Cyclically Adjusted Budget Deficits for Fiscal Surveillance

Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Kattai, Rasmus; Lewis, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

such figures using a specially constructed real time data set containing published values of deficits, output gaps and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666802

An exploration of real-time revisions of output gap estimates across European countries

Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Lacuesta, Aitor; …

En este documento se analizan las revisiones en tiempo real de las estimaciones de la brecha de producción (output gap) publicadas por la Comisión Europea para 15 países durante el período 2002-2014. De acuerdo con nuestro análisis, las revisiones en tiempo real de las brechas de...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012529564