This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on output and inflation as new releases of data become available. The marginal contribution of a particular release for the value of the signal and its precision is evaluated by computing 'news' on the basis of an evolving...

The basic idea of the real-time enterprise is to become quicker. A business which wants to become a real-time enterprise has to acquire three main abilities:- Internal and external data is integrated quickly and in real time in a well-organized company data pool,- Analyses of information in the...

This paper explores 35 years of the American business cycle with the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) as a monitoring tool using monthly data. It exhibits ten US time series, which offer reliable information to detect recessions in real time. It also assesses the performances of different and...