Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2015 - First version: October 2015
the indicators and their marginal effects on the probability of a recession. We then use receiver operating characteristic … important leading indicators, but also that the stock market has some predictive value. The recession probability is a nonlinear … function of these leading indicators. The BRT approach also helps to recover how the recession probability depends on the …