We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...

We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...

We use the gradient boosting estimation technique and the ROC curveto non-parametrically measure and exploit the maximal predictive powerof leading indicators for the future state of the business cycle. We de-velop novel procedures for finding the best performing transformationsof individual...