This paper first describes moment properties for Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) processes and the corresponding squared processes, and then studies joint prediction of the mean and volatility. Recursive estimates based on estimating functions are used to compute joint predictions for...

In this chapter, we discuss the use of mixed frequency models and diffusion index approximation methods in the context of prediction. In particular, select recent specification and estimation methods are outlined, and an empirical illustration is provided wherein U.S. unemployment forecasts are...

This paper outlines testing procedures for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of multiple conditional distribution models. The tests that are discussed are based on either the comparison of entire conditional distributions or the comparison of predictive confidence...

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This paper proposes the implementation of the SupWald test of Andrews (1993) to detect structural breaks in the loadings of a static factor model. The procedure is illustrated by testing for structural breaks in the common factors of GDP growth series for a sample of advanced countries from 1950...

101 As China exercises greater influence over global economics commensurate with the size of its economy, political discussions of the correct exchange rate for China will demand center stage. Questions about whether China should float the yuan, what the ‘competitive’ exchange rate might be,...