We evaluate the forecasting performance of four competing models for short-term macroeconomic forecasting: the traditional VAR, small scale Bayesian VAR, Factor Augmented VAR and Bayesian Factor Augmented VAR models. Using Armenian quarterly actual macroeconomic time series from 1996Q1 –...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

This paper proposes a multiple regression model for country risk assessment using the main economic-financial and political variables starting from the existing major risk rating systems. It is based on data provided by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and …financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specifi…cation used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...