Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large...

We propose a novel empirical approach to inform monetary policymakers about the potential effects of policy action when facing trade-offs between financial and macroeconomic stability. We estimate a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) for the euro area covering the real economy, monetary...

This paper uses quantile regression methodology to estimate intra-generational earnings mobility models in Argentina. This methodology allows the detection of differences in earnings’ dependence across the conditional earnings distribution. The most consistent result is that an individual’s...

We develop methodology and theory for a general Bayesian approach towards dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters. Specifically, we propose a variational inference scheme which features dynamic sparsity-inducing properties so that different...

Betting markets are efficient if expected payouts on all possible bets on an event are equal. We compare two regression-based methods for testing for efficiency that have been used in previous research: One that uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable for payouts and one that...

This study analyzes the impact of trade flows in environmental and non-environmental goods on carbon emissions in 36 OECD countries from 1999 to 2020. Using Moment Quantile Regression, our analysis finds that the effects of trade on carbon emissions vary across different levels of emissions....

In regression discontinuity designs with multiple running variables (MRD), units are assigned different treatments based on whether their values on several observed running variables exceed known thresholds. In such designs, applied work commonly analyzes each running variable separately,...