chapter 1 Introduction: what is risk? -- chapter 2 Modelling risk -- chapter 3 The systems approach -- chapter 4 Managing risk -- chapter 5 Risky information: the difference between data and knowledge -- chapter 6 Risk and decision-making.

In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the short-term interest rate process. Our model incorporates the interpretability of regression trees and the flexibility of smooth transition models to describe regime switches...