Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest although a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to reduce the field failures of splined shafts. The paper also demonstrates the application of Mahalanobis-Taguchi system (MTS) for identifying the optimum hardness profile to avoid failures. Design/methodology/approach –...

Every month the commercial banks in Iceland publish their inflation forecast for the coming month. This paper examines how accurate these forecasts were from 2000 to 2006. Most of the forecasts have similar accuracy where the inflation rate in the month in question is underestimated by 2 to 6...

The National Economic Institute in Iceland was a government institute responsible for producing and publishing a national economic forecast. The institute was closed in 2002. This paper measures the accuracy of the institute's forecasts from 1981-2002. The paper measures the accuracy of the GDP...

This paper investigates the comparative performance of five small area estimators. We use Monte Carlo simulation in the context of both theoretical and empirical populations. In addition to the direct and indirect estimators, we consider the optimal composite estimator with population weights,...