The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe an experiment that asked what kinds of scenarios are perceived as more informative to managers in light of current decisions: scenarios that describe how critical uncertainties might develop; or, scenarios that describe what might happen if...

Purpose – The author, a veteran futurist, aims to trace the history of the scenario process, starting with those developed by the Shell team that anticipated an OPEC manipulation of oil supplies and prices that occurred in 1973. Largely on the basis of the Shell scenario's brilliant insight,...