We propose methods for constructing regularized mixtures of density forecasts. We explore a variety of objectives and regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts. All individual inflation forecasters (even...

Purpose: This paper aims to explore drivers of the effectiveness of risk assessments in risk workshops. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses an agent-based model to simulate risk assessments in risk workshops. Combining the notions of transactive memory and the ideal speech situation,...

The paper aims at the need for economic policy evaluators to assess how and whether specific measures can influence the development of markets in a way that achieves greater wealth. Therefore, this study concentrates on well-documented firms' heterogeneity that significantly impact their ability...

Prediction Markets (PMs) are markets in which agents trade event contingent assets. Enterprises use PMs to forecast revenues and project deadlines. This paper presents an Agent-based model, called Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule-Automated Market Maker (LMSR-ASM), to evaluate Prediction Markets....

A solution to deal with endogeneity when external instruments are not available is through heteroschedasticity. This paper shows that the available estimators might suffer from finite sample bias and proposes a solution. In MonteCarlo simulations the proposed solution makes the bias equal to...